French exchange

The old rivals of Europe have a new economic deal. From cooperation on jet engines to a spat over sea snails, who does best out of Anglo-French trade?

Richard Davies

Finn McEvoy

, and

Josh Hellings

May 30, 2025

Britain’s relations with France have shifted in recent weeks. A new economic deal with the EU was struck—one with a distinctly French flavour. Yet just a few days later the French navy impounded a British ship. It is the latest chapter in a turbulent history - one of partnership and rivalry. How do the two economies compare in 2025? What are the gains from the economic exchange between Britain and France?

A portrait of two economies

Start with an economic picture of the two nations. The UK is a touch bigger, when measured by GDP — £2.85 trillion versus £2.47 trillion, in 2024. The populations are close too—though in recent years the UK headcount has surged, driven up by immigration (Chart 1). Both countries face fertility rates—1.4 for the UK, 1.6 for France—that are at levels which mean the native population is set to decline.

Chart 1. UK and France key figures

Source: IMF, World Bank.

The economies are clearly cousins, and they are from a family (slow growing rich nations) whose members share similar worries. Productivity growth, or the lack of it, is a common concern: since the 2008 crash, output per hour has grown by less than 6% in both countries—well under 0.5% per year. This means the promised gains from living in a market economy—sustained rises in living standards—have come to disappoint. In the UK wages have remained broadly flat since 2007 after accounting for inflation; in France they are up but the rise has been paltry—less than 0.5% a year. Debt too, is a concern: it is over 100% of GDP in the UK and over 115% in France.

One area where the cousins differ is on international exchange. The UK’s deficit is large and chronic. (America has the same problem: see our newsletter, Anglo-American – A Tale of Two Deficits). France, by contrast, looks healthier (Chart 1 above, fourth panel). Does the way the UK and France trade overseas explain this difference?

In the air, under the sea

Aviation is a big part of the economic partnership. The top three goods traded in each direction are heavy machinery, vehicles, and aircraft. ‘Heavy machinery’ often means aviation: turbo-jets make up nearly 38% of the $5 billion of heavy machinery exported to France in 2024. Airbus, formed as a consortium of European aerospace companies in 1967, sources over 10,000 original parts from the UK to its assembly plants in Toulouse and Hamburg. The flows go in both directions: the UK imported $2.0 billion of aircraft in 2024.

Fishing, the recent flashpoint, is a key imbalance. Fish was the 6^th largest UK export to France in 2024, with sales of $1.2 billion. Over half came from salmon—predominantly from Scottish salmon farms. This is 65 times more than the French manage to sell to us—British imports from France were just $18 million in 2024.

Chart 2. Goods trade

Source: UN Comtrade, 2024 data. Top 10 products in 2-digit HS chapters.

Britain relies on France for food. Our own research (see our recent paper here) tracks the origin of food in UK supermarkets. France is the 2^nd most common country of origin (behind Italy) accounting for 1-in-10 of the imported food items Britons can choose from at the major stores. Drink is a major flow too: the UK exported alcohol worth $730 million, 74% of it whisky, in 2024. But we imported much more—$2.5 billion worth—with wine making up 46% of the total. Our data shows that 1-in-4 supermarket wines come from France.

Chart 3. British supermarkets — food from France

Source: Davies & Hellings (2025)
Notes: COICOP food & drink divisions with highest share of French origin. ‘*' indicates categories with fewer than 50 product observations.

From Bute Street to Bordeaux

Another vital link is the hundreds of thousands of British and French nationals that have migrated across the channel. Estimates suggest that 170,000 people born in France live in the UK, while around 140,000 people born in the UK reside in France. Things are broadly balanced here, in other words.

The people that move are different though. The French in Britain are often in London—a walk up Bute Street, the centre of ‘Little Paris’, will verify this. There are smaller French clusters in Bristol, Edinburgh, and Manchester. They are young and often professionals. They are there to earn.

Map 1. The French in Great Britain

Source: ONS (2021 census, England and Wales), NRS (2022 census, Scotland)

Britons in France, by contrast, are there to spend. They are most often retirees, often drawn to the countryside, running down pension pots. The most popular areas, French statistics show, include the villages around Bordeaux.

Map 2. Britons in France

Source: INSEE (2016 census, France)

A new deal and a fish fight

In the new deal struck on May 19 the UK and EU agreed to ‘reset’ relations. The UK will ‘work towards’ alignment with EU food standards, to create a common area for food and farming, where pesticide and animal welfare rules are matched. The deal may help the defence industry, with UK firms gaining access to EU procurement projects for the first time since Brexit (this could be lucrative: the EU recently announced a €150bn arms fund). British travellers may be allowed to use e-gate queues at EU airports, making travel a little faster this summer.

Fishing rights quickly emerged as the most contentious element. Countries have exclusive rights to their own fisheries. The new deal will mean EU boats may fish in UK waters for the next 12 years—the proximity (see map below) making this a valuable result for those—France, but also Holland and Denmark—with large fleets in adjacent waters.

The new deal started bady, as the French navy impounded a British boat on accusations of illegal fishing. The vessel is named Lady-T, after the former Prime Minister. Her crew were on the hunt for whelks—a kind of sea snail. They are large, tough and beloved in South Korea and Vietnam, where canned whelks are used in dishes like golbaengi-muchim (a spicy salad, recipe here). The whelk is a winning UK export to East Asia, data show. Thankfully for Britain’s trade balance the Lady-T has since been freed.

Map 3. The UK Exclusive Economic Zone